Avatar will win best picture, because no, Hurt Locker won't, neither will Sandra Bullock Helps the Black People, neither will Jews in Trouble, neither will Disney Kills Old People, etc. etc.
You remember the last time a movie earned the most money ever, was directed by James Cameron and won? Well, it's gonna happen again. And get over it, 'cause Avatar was a good movie, mmmkay?
Kathryn Bigelow will win her directing Oscar. She won the DGA, end of story. They're not going to give it to her ex, since they didn't give it to him for his 'Fuck You Money" movie 13 years ago.
I think the best actor category is really a face-off between Jeff Bridges and Jeremy Renner. Not entirely sure though, because I haven't seen Crazy Heart yet. The buzz around Bridges is huge, so it's probably a good bet. They're not going to give it to Morgan Freeman. C'mon, are they really serious about him getting this nom when the main character in Rugby Cures Racism was played by Matt Damon?
Christoph Waltz will win best supporting actor for his turn in Inglourious Basterds. This is a fact, like photosynthesis. Sorry, Sir-in-Canada Christopher Plummer. Better luck next time.
Sandra Bullock will not win best actress for ending racism with sports, especially if Matt Damon won't win in that role, ESPECIALLY if Morgan Freeman won't win for playing Nelson Mandella. Except Bullock will win. Because the Academy sent us a message a few years ago that films the likes of Crash are high-caliber social commentary. They are very, very stupid, after all. Sorry to all the other nominees, but this is Bullock's year. I'll be sure to rent The Net to celebrate.
Really don't know who's winning best supporting actress. Haven't seen most of them yet. Vera Farmiga is very good in Up In The Air. But the Crazy Heart buzz may give it to Gyllenhaal.
Animated category's hard this year. I loved so much of it, but I especially loved Up, and Pixar's a good bet in any year, especially since, in the new expanded (and perfectly uselessly expanded) category, Up won't beat Avatar. So Up it is. As much as I love Coraline and Fantastic Mr. Fox, they're more niche market films, and we know how the Academy feels about those!
Film editing, cinematography and screenwriting must all go to Inglourious Basterds.
And frankly, it was the best film of 2009, period, and I will brook no argument on this. It's an extraordinary, extraordinary film.
In the Loop should win adapted screenplay, but Up In The Air will win, which is ok, because it's awesome, and Jason Reitman deserves a screenplay award for writing this wonderful movie.
All that scribbling here, but really, this is Avatar's year, because in case you haven't noticed, Hollywood needs money too, right now, and Avatar will bring it in like Tolkien did seven years ago. Avatar will win every fx category there is, for all its animation and 3-d layering. So be it. It was a good movie.